Gary,
You can tell the larger pan bolt is the one going into the timing case.
So, I agree, it is the FMS.
Pulling the timing case can be a can of worms, because corrosion of the passages, questionable rubber in the harmonic damper, and the "while you're in there" aspect of the timing chain and water pump.
A gasket set with a SpeediSleeve is not much more than a regular timing gasket set, and you're assured of a leakproof seal.
Jim,
Lil'Red is a '87 F250 HD, 4.10's, 1356 4x4, Zf-5, 3G, PMGR, Saginaw PS, desmogged with a Holley 80508 and Performer intake.
Too much other stuff to mention.